Bitcoin (BTC) Price Analysis and Market Trends

Introduction

Bitcoin (BTC) experienced a brief surge above $30,000 followed by a dip back to $29,000, causing mixed sentiments among analysts. The cryptocurrency is currently consolidating within a range of $29,000 to $29,200. This article will explore the recent market developments and their impact on the price of Bitcoin.

Macro: Fitch Downgrade of US Credit Rating

Recently, the credit rating of the United States was downgraded by Fitch from AAA to AA+. This decision has raised concerns among analysts regarding its potential effect on risky financial markets. However, the correlation between Bitcoin and other markets has been decreasing, leaving it uncertain whether this downgrade will impact Bitcoin in a similar manner.

Macro Releases and Their Potential Impact

On August 3, several macroeconomic releases are scheduled, including the Initial Jobless Claims, Unit Labor Costs, ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and Factory Orders. However, due to low liquidity, it is unlikely that these releases will cause much disruption in the market.

Possible Lawsuit Against Binance

The recent drop in Bitcoin’s price may be attributed to news regarding a potential fraud lawsuit against Binance by the US Department of Justice. However, the Department is concerned about the impact such actions may have on customers and is being cautious in proceeding. Further details will be provided by Crypto Insiders.

Historically Low Volatility of Bitcoin

Analysis firm Kaiko reports that the volatility of Bitcoin, as well as Ethereum (ETH), is currently at the lowest level in years. In fact, Bitcoin’s volatility is even lower than that of traditional assets such as Nasdaq, S&P 500, and gold. This suggests a period of relative stability in the cryptocurrency market.

Whales’ Selling Activity and its Possible Impact

Whales, or large investors, have recently become active in the market. According to Santiment, whales have purchased a significant amount of Bitcoin since mid-May, now owning nearly 60% of the total supply. However, analyst James van Straten points out that 15,000 BTC has been sent to exchanges in the past few days, indicating that whales may be selling. Yet, CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju believes that a major dump is unlikely due to the lack of exit liquidity for retailers.

BTC Analyst’s Price Predictions

Analyst Keith Alan suggests that Bitcoin’s most bullish scenario is if it maintains its position above the 21-month moving average of $28,500. This could lead to a retest of $30,000 and a potential breakthrough of the 100-week moving average at $31,750. However, if the 21-month MA fails to hold, Alan expects a retest of support levels at $25,000 and possibly even the 2017 peak of $20,000.

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Tags: Binance, Bitcoin, BTC, Fitch, Price, Volatility, Whales